Policy Implications of MISMS Influenza Research

MISMS scientists and collaborators participate in a broad range of infectious disease research projects, with a specific focus on influenza virus evolutionary patterns, pandemic preparedness, control strategies, transmission dynamics, and disease burden in varying climates.  Their findings have been published in leading peer-reviewed print journals and in innovative online journals like PLoS Currents: Influenza.  A number of MISMS research findings have helped to inform local, national, and international influenza control policies.  MISMS researchers are currently investigating the epidemiologic impact of the current A/H1N1 pandemic and the effectiveness of control efforts designed to address it. 

Analyses of historical H1N1 data have helped develop the various spatial-temporal models used to describe pandemic influenza viruses and their early molecular epidemiology, antigenic and genetic characteristics, and evolutionary history.  Along with data collected from Mexico during the early stages of the current pandemic (Spring 2009), this historical data helps to create a timeline for the spread of the disease.  Early indicators abstracted from this timeline are vital in keeping decision-makers vigilant and thus helping to sustain preparedness efforts earlier in a given season.  MISMS’s research is also helping to identify high-risk populations for H1N1, which, contrasted with seasonal influenza, include children, young adults, and pregnant women.  As a result, these findings provide a better understanding of the groups that require priority immunization in the face of limited vaccine supplies.

While the current H1N1 pandemic most clearly illustrates how MISMS research can be translated to policy, a basic understanding of historical data from previous pandemics can help to create accurate awareness messages and effective preparedness planning for future pandemics.  The face of a potential pandemic changes with each subsequent circulation of a novel strain, which in turn can result in different transmission dynamics by geography.  As a result, a greater adaptability of pandemic preparedness efforts is needed.

Attention must also be given to the global health burden of seasonal influenza, as it is much greater than was previously thought.  Of particular interest is the difference in impact of seasonal influenza between tropical and temperate climates.  While the study of influenza in tropical climates continues to grow, much remains to be done in order to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the role tropical circulation of influenza plays in the global circulation and evolution of the disease. 

MISMS's on-going research collaborations and data dissemination efforts continue to have important policy and practical implications for pandemic preparedness and seasonal influenza control at all levels.

Scientific publications supported by MISMS

All publications supported by the Fogarty International Center can be found at the FIC Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies Bibliography Website. Type "influenza" as a keyword to search for publications supported by MISMS.

Primary areas of research

• Influenza virus evolutionary patterns
• Pandemic influnza
• Vaccine benefits and influenza control strategies
• Influenza transmission dynamics
• Influenza disease burden in tropical and temperate climates
  

Recently Released:

Special supplement published by Vaccine on "Historical Influenza Pandemics"

Influenza virus evolutionary patterns

1. Boni MF, Smith GJD, Holmes EC, Vijaykrishna D. (Oct 2011) No evidence for intra-segment recombination of 2009 H1N1 influenza virus in swine. Gene; 2011 Oct 20. [In press]
2. Bhatt S, Holmes EC, Pybus OG. (Sep 2011) The genomic rate of molecular adaptation of the human influenza A virus. Mol Biol Evol. 2011 Sep; 28(9): 2443-51.
3. Murcia PR, Wood JLN, Holmes EC. (Jun 2011) Genome-scale evolution and phylodynamics of equine H3N8 influenza A virus. J Virol. 2011 Jun; 85(11): 5312-22.
4. Lorusso A, AL Vincent, ML Harland, Alt D, Bayles DO, Russell CA, Smith DJ, Swenson SL, Gramer MR, Lager K, Lewis NS. (Apr 2011) Genetic and antigenic characterization of H1 influenza viruses from swine in the United States prior to 2008. J Gen Virol. 2011 Apr; 92(Pt 4): 919-30.
5. Nelson MI, Tan Y, Ghedin, E, Wentworth D, St. George K, Edelman L, Beck E, Fan J, Kumar S, Spiro DJ, Simonsen L, Viboud C, Holmes EC, Henrickson KJ, Musser JM. (Jan 2011) Phylogeography of the spring and fall waves of the H1N1/09 pandemic influenza virus in the United States. 2011 Jan; 85(2): 828-34.
6. Ghedin E, Laplante J, DePasse J, Wentworth DE, Santos RP, Lepow ML, Porter J, Stellrecht K, Lin X, Operario D, Griesemer S, Fitch A, Halpin RA, Stockwell TB, Spiro DJ, Holmes EC, St. George K. (Jan 2011) Deep sequencing reveals mixed infection with pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus strains and the emergence of oseltamivir resistance. J Infect Dis. 2011 Jan 15; 203(2): 168-74.
7. Hayward JJ, Dubovi EJ, Scarlett JM, Janeczko S, Holmes EC, Parrish CR. (Dec 2010) Microevolution of canine influenza virus in shelters and its molecular epidemiology in the United States. J Virol. 2010 Dec; 84(24): 12636-45.
8. Murcia P, Baillie GJ, Daley J, Elton D, Jervis C, Mumford JA, Newton R, Parrish CR, Hoelzer K, Dougan G, Parkhill J, Lennard N, Ormond D, Moule S, Whitwham A, McKinley TJ, McCauley JW, Holmes EC, Grenfell BT, Wood JLN. (May 2010) The intra- and inter-host evolutionary dynamics of equine influenza virus. J.Virol. 84, 6943-54.
9. Boni MF, de Jong MD, van Doorn HR, Holmes EC. (May 2010) Guidelines for identifying homologous recombination events in influenza A virus. PLoS One. 5(5): e10434.
10. Hoelzer K, Murcia P, Baillie GJ, Wood JLN, Metzger S, Osterrieder K, Dubovi EJ, Holmes EC, Parrish CR. (May 2010) Intrahost evolutionary dynamics of canine influenza virus in naive and partially immune dogs. J Virol. 84(10): 5329-35.
11. Fusaro A, Nelson MI, Joannis T, Bertolotti L, Monne I, Salviato A, Capua I, Holmes EC, Cattoli G. (Apr 2010) Evolutionary dynamics of multiple sublineages of H5N1 influenza viruses in Nigeria, 2006-2008. J Virol. 84(7): 3239-47.
12. Lemey P, Rambaut A, Welch JJ, Suchard MA. (Mar 2010) Phylogeography takes a relaxed random walk in continuous space and time. Mol Biol Evol. [Epub ahead of print: March 4, 2010]
13. Chen R, Holmes EC. (Jan 2010) Hitchhiking and the population genetic structure of avian influenza virus. J Mol Evol. 70(1): 98-105.
14. Holmes EC. (Jan 2010) The comparative genomics of viral emergence. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 107 (Suppl 1): 1742-6.
15. Lemey P, Suchard M, Rambaut A. (Sep 2009) Reconstructing the initial global spread of a human influenza pandemic: A Bayesian spatial-temporal model for the global spread of H1N1pdm. PLoS Currents Influenza. RRN1031.
16. Holmes E. (Sep 2009) RNA virus genomics: a world of possibilities. J Clin Invest. 119(9): 2488.
17. Ghedin E, Fitch A, Boyne A, Griesemer S, DePasse J, Bera J, Zhang X, Halpin R, Smit M, Jennings L, St. George K, Holmes EC, Spiro D. (Sep 2009) Mixed infection and the genesis of influenza virus diversity. J Virol. 83(17): 8832-41.
18. Rambaut A, Holmes E. (Aug 2009) The early molecular epidemiology of the swine-origin A/H1N1 human influenza pandemic. PLoS Currents Influenza. RRN1003.
19. Bahl J, Vijaykrishna D, Holmes EC, Smith GJ, Guan Y. (Aug 2009) Gene flow and competitive exclusion of avian influenza A virus in natural reservoir hosts. Virology. 390(2): 289-97.
20. Garten R, Davis C, Russell C, Shu B, Lindstrom S, Balish A, Sessions W, Xu X, Skepner E, Deyde V, Okomo-Adhiambo M, Gubareva L, Barnes J, Smith C, Emery S, Hillman M, Rivailler P, Smagala J, Miranda de Graaf, Burke D, Fouchier R, Pappas C, Alpuche-Aranda C, López-Gatell H, Olivera H, López I, Myers C, Faix D, Blair P, Yu C, Keene K, Dotson PD, Boxrud D, Sambol A, Abid S, St. George K, Bannerman T, Moore A, Stringer D, Blevins P, Demmler-Harrison G, Ginsberg M, Kriner P, Waterman S, Smole S, Guevara H, Belongia E, Clark P, Beatrice S, Donis R, Katz J, Finelli L, Bridges C, Shaw M, Jernigan D, Uyeki T, Smith D, Klimov A, Cox N. (Jul 2009) Antigenic and genetic characteristics of swine-origin 2009 A(H1N1) influenza viruses circulating in humans. Science. 325(5937):197-201.
21. Bryant NA, Rash AS, Russell C, Ross J, Cooke A, Bowman S, MacRae S, Lewis N, Paillot R, Zanoni R, Meier H, Griffiths L, Daly J, Tiwari A, Chambers T, Newton J, Elton D. (Jul 2009) Antigenic and genetic variations in European and North American equine influenza virus strains (H3N8) isolated from 2006 to 2007. Vet Microbiol. 138(1-2): 41-52.
22. Dunham E, Dugan V, Kaser E, Perkins S, Brown I, Holmes EC, Taubenberger JK. (Jun 2009) Different Evolutionary Trajectories of European Avian-Like and Classical Swine H1N1 Influenza A Viruses. J Virol. 83: 5485-94.
23. Cattoli G, Monne I, Fusaro A, Joannis TM, Lombin LH, Aly MM, Arafa AS, Sturm-Ramirez KM, Couacy-Hymann E, Awuni JA, Batawui KB, Awoume KA, Aplogan GL, Sow A, Ngangnou AC, El Nasri Hamza IM, Gamatié D, Dauphin G, Domenech JM, Capua I. (Mar 2009) Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 in Africa: a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis and molecular characterization of isolates. PLoS ONE. 4(3): e4842.
24. Nelson MI, Simonsen L, Viboud C, Miller MA, Holmes EC. (Jul 2009) The origin and global emergence of adamantane resistant A/H3N2 influenza viruses. Virology. 388(2): 270-8.
25. Chen R, Holmes EC. (Jan 2009) Frequent inter-species transmission and geographic subdivision in avian influenza viruses from wild birds. Virology. 383(1): 156-61.
26. Nelson MI, Edelman L, Spiro DJ, Boyne AR, Bera J, Halpin R, Ghedin E, Miller MA, Simonsen L, Viboud C, Holmes EC. (Aug 2008) Molecular epidemiology of A/H3N2 and A/H1N1 influenza virus during a single epidemic season in the United States. PLoS Pathog. 4(8):e1000133.
27. Chen R, Holmes EC. (Jun 2008) The evolutionary dynamics of human influenza B virus. J Mol Evol. 66(6): 655-63.
28. Dugan VG, Chen R, Spiro DJ, Sengamalay N, Zaborsky J, Ghedin E, Nolting J, Swayne DE, Runstadler JA, Happ GM, Senne DA, Wang R, Slemons RD, Holmes EC, Taubenberger JK. (May 2008) The evolutionary genetics and emergence of avian influenza viruses in wild birds. PLoS Pathog. 4(5): e1000076.
29. Boni MF, Zhou Y, Taubenberger JK, Holmes EC. (May 2008) Homologous recombination is very rare or absent in human influenza A virus. J Virol. 82(10): 4807-11.
30. Rambaut A, Pybus OG, Nelson MI, Viboud C, Taubenberger JK, Holmes EC. (May 2008) The genomic and epidemiological dynamics of human influenza A virus. Nature. 453(7195): 615–9.
    
31. Duffy S, Shackleton LA, Holmes EC. (Apr 2008) Rates of evolutionary change in viruses: patterns and determinants. Nat Rev Genet. 9(4):267-76.
    
32. Pardini MI, Jamal LF, Durigon EL, Massad E, Perez JF, Pinho JR, Holmes EC, de Andrade Zanotto PM. (Mar 2008) Boosting virology in Brazil. PLoS Biology. 6(3):e57.
    
33. Nelson MI, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Bennett RT, Griesemer SB, St George K, Taylor J, Spiro DJ, Sengamalay NA, Ghedin E, Taubenberger JK, Holmes EC. (Feb 2008) Multiple reassortment events in the evolutionary history of H1N1 influenza A virus since 1918. PLoS Pathog. 4(2): e1000012.
    
34. Holmes EC. (Oct 2007) Viral evolution in the genomic age. PLoS Biol. 5(10): e278.
35. Nelson MI, Simonsen L, Viboud C, Miller MA, Holmes EC. Phylogenetic analysis reveals the global migration of seasonal influenza A viruses. PLoS Pathog. 2007 Sep 14;3(9):1220-8.
36. Simonsen L, Viboud C, Grenfell B, Dushoff J, Jennings L, Smit M, Macken C, Hata M, Gog J, Miller M, Holmes E. (Aug 2007) The genesis and spread of reassortment human influenza A/H3N2 viruses conferring adamantane resistance. Mol Biol Evol. 24(8): 1811-20.
    
37. Nelson MI, Holmes EC. The evolution of epidemic influenza. Nature. 2007 March; 8:196-205.
38. Nelson M, Simonsen L, Viboud C, Miller MA, Taylor J, George K, Griesemer S, Ghedin E, Sengamalay N, Spiro D, Volkov I, Grenfell B, Lipman D, Taubenberger J, Holmes E. (Dec 2006) Stochastic Processes Are Key Determinants of Short-Term Evolution in Influenza A Virus. PLoS Pathog. 2(12): e125.
39. Koelle K, Cobey S, Grenfell B, Pascual M. (Dec 2006) Epochal evolution shapes the phylodynamics of interpandemic influenza A (H3N2) in humans. Science. 314(5807):1898-903.
40. Chen R, Holmes EC. (Dec 2006) Avian influenza virus exhibits rapid evolutionary dynamics. Mol Biol Evol. 23(12): 2336-41.
41. Wolf YL, Viboud C, Holmes EC, Koonin EV, Lipman DJ. (Oct 2006) Long intervals of stasis punctuated by bursts of positive selection in the seasonal evolution of influenza A virus. Biology Direct. 1: 34.
42. Holmes EC, Lipman DJ, Zamarin D, Yewdell JW. (Sep 2006) Comment on “Large scale sequence analysis of avian influenza isolates“. Science. 313: 1573b.
    
43. Kuiken T, Holmes EC, McCauley J, Rimmelzwaan GF, Williams CS, Grenfell BT. (Apr 2006) Host species barriers to influenza virus infections. Science. 312: 394-7.
    
44. Levin SA, Dushoff J, Plotkin JB. (Mar-Apr 2004) Evolution and persistence of influenza A and other diseases. Math. Bioscience, 188:17-28.
    
45. Plotkin JB, Dushoff J. (Jun 2003) Codon bias and frequency-dependent selection on the hemagglutinin epitopes of influenza A virus. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 100: 7152-7.
    
46. Earn D, Dushoff J, Levin S. (Jul 2002) Ecology and evolution of the flu. Trends Ecol Evol. 17: 334-40.
    
47. Plotkin JB, Dushoff J, Levin SA. (Apr 2002). Hemagglutinin sequence clusters and the antigenic evolution of influenza A virus. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 99: 6263-8.
    

1. Weinberger DM, Simonsen L, Jordan R, Steiner C, Miller M, Viboud C. (Dec 2011) Impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic on pneumococcal pneumonia hospitalizations in the United States. J Infect Dis. 2011 Dec 7. [Epub ahead of print]
2. Charu V, Chowell G, Palacio Mejia LS, Echevarría-Zuno S, Borja-Aburto VH, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Viboud C. (Nov 2011) Mortality burden of the A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico: a comparison of deaths and years of life lost to seasonal influenza. Clin Infect Dis. 2011 Nov; 53(10): 985-93.
3. Lam TT-Y, Zhu H, Wang J, Smith DK, Holmes EC, Webster RG, Webby R, Peiris JM, Guan Y. (Oct 2011) Reassortment events among swine influenza A viruses in China: Implications for the origin of the 2009 influenza pandemic. J Virol. 2011 Oct; 85(19): 10279-85.
4. Simonsen L, Viboud C, Chowell G, Andreasen V, Olson DR, Parekh V, Mølbak K, Miller MA. (Jul 2011) The need for interdisciplinary studies of historic pandemics. Vaccine. 2011 Jul 22; 29 Suppl 2: B1-5.
5. Holmes EC, Ghedin E, Halpin RA, Stockwell TB, Zhang X-Q, Fleming R, Davey R, Benson CA, Mehta S, Taplitz R, Liu Y-T, Brouwer KC, Wentworth DE, Lin X, INSIGHT FLU002 Study Group, Schooley RT. (Jul 2011) Extensive geographical mixing of human H1N1/09 influenza A virus in a single university community. J Virol. 2011 Jul; 85(14): 6923-9.
6. Chowell G, Viboud C, Munayco CV, Gomez J, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Tamerius J, Fiestas V, Halsey ES, Laguna-Torres VA. (Jun 2011) Spatial and temporal characteristics of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in Peru. PLoS One. 2011 Jun 21; 6(6): e21287.
7. Chowell G, Echevarria-Zuno S, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Tamerius J, Miller M, Borja-Aburto V. (May 2011) Characterizing the epidemiology of the 2009 H1N1pdm influenza pandemic in Mexican states. PLoS Med. 2011 May; 8(5): e1000436.
8. Nishiura H, Chowell G, Castillo-Chavez C. (Mar 2011) Did modeling overestimate the transmission potential of pandemic (H1N1-2009)? Sample size estimation for post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies. 2011 Mar 24; PLoS One 6(3): e17908.
9. Acuna-Soto R, Castaneda-Davila L, Chowell G. (Jan 2011) A perspective on the 2009 H1N1pdm influenza pandemic in Mexico. Math Biosci Eng. 2011 Jan; 8(1): 223-38.
10. Perez MA, Gordon A, Sanchez F, Narvaez F, Gutierrez G, Ortega O, Nuñez A, Harris E, Balmaseda A. (Nov 2010) Severe coinfections of dengue and pandemic influenza A H1N1 viruses. Pediatr Infect Dis J. 2010 Nov; 29(11): 1052-5.
11. Chutinimitkul S, Herfst S, Steel J, Lowen AC, Ye J, van Riel D, Schrauwen EJA, Bestebroer TM, Koel B, Burke DF, Sutherland-Cash KH, Whittleston CS, Wales DJ, Smith DJ, Russell CA, Jonges M, Meijer A, Koopmans M, Rimmelzwaan GF, Kuiken T, Osterhaus ADME, Garcia-Sastre A, Perez DR, Fouchier RAM. (Nov 2010) Virulence-associated substitution D222G in hemagglutinin of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus affects receptor binding. J Virol. 2010 Nov; 84(22): 11802-13.
12. Van Kerkhove MD, Asikainen T, Becker NG, Bjorge S, Desenclos JC, dos Santos T, Fraser C, Leung GM, Lipsitch M, Longini IM Jr, McBryde ES, Roth CE, Shay DK, Smith DJ, Wallinga J, White PJ, Ferguson NM, Riley S; WHO Informal Network for Mathematical Modelling for Pandemic Influenza H1N1 2009 (Working Group on Data Needs). (Jun 2010) Studies needed to address public health challenges of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: insights from modeling. PLoS Med. 2010 Jun 1; 7(6): e1000275.
13. Gordon A, Saborío S, Videa E, López R, Kuan G, Balmaseda A, Harris E. (Jun 2010) Clinical attack rate and presentation of pandemic H1N1 influenza versus seasonal influenza A and B in a pediatric cohort in Nicaragua. Clin Infect Dis. 50(11): 1462-7.
14. Gordon A, Videa E, Saborío S, López R, Kuan G, Balmaseda A, Harris E. (Apr 2010) Diagnostic accuracy of a rapid influenza test for pandemic influenza A H1N1.  PLoS One. 5(4): e10364.
15. Viboud C, Miller M, Olson D, Osterholm M, Simonsen L. (Mar 2010) Preliminary estimates of mortality and years of life lost associated with the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic in the US and comparison with past influenza seasons. PLoS Curr Influenza. RRN1153.
16. Bansal S, Pourbohloul B, Hupert N, Grenfell B, Meyers LA. (Feb 2010) The shifting demographic landscape of pandemic influenza. PLoS One. 5(2): e9360.
17. Nishiura H, Chowell G, Safan M, Castillo-Chavez C. (Jan 2010) Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A (H1N1) 2009. Theor Biol Med Model. 7: 1.
18. Reichert T, Chowell G, Nishiura H, Christensen RA, McCullers JA. (Jan 2010) Does glycosylation as a modifier of Original Antigenic Sin explain the case age distribution and unusual toxicity in pandemic novel H1N1 influenza? BMC Infect Dis. 10: 5.
19. Rios-Doria D, Chowell G. (Dec 2009) Qualitative analysis of the level of cross-protection between epidemic waves of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic. J Theor Biol. 261(4): 584-92.
20. Nelson M, Spiro D, Wentworth D, Beck E, Fan J, Ghedin E, Halpin R, Bera J, Hine E, Proudfoot K, Stockwell T, Lin X, Griesemer S, Kumar S, Bose M, Viboud C, Holmes E, Henrickson K. (Nov 2009) The early diversification of influenza A/H1N1pdm. PLoS Curr Influenza. RRN1126.
21. Alonso WJ, Schuck-Paim C. (Nov 2009) Public preparedness guidance for a severe influenza pandemic in different countries: a qualitative assessment and critical overview. PLoS Curr: Influenza. Nov 10, 2009.
22. Gomez J, Munayco C, Arrasco J, Suarez L, Laguna-Torres V, Aguilar P, Chowell G, Kochel T. (Oct 2009) Pandemic influenza in a southern hemisphere setting: the experience in Peru from May to September, 2009. Euro Surveill. 14(42). pii: 19371.
23. Miller MA, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Olson D, Russell C. (Aug 2009 [revised Sep 2009]) Mortality and morbidity burden associated with A/H1N1pdm influenza virus: Who is likely to be infected, experience clinical symptoms, or die from the H1N1pdm 2009 pandemic virus? Version 2. PLoS Currents Influenza. RRN1013.
24. Chowell G, Bertozzi S, Colchero M, Lopez-Gatell H, Alpuche-Aranda C, Hernandez M, Miller MA. (Aug 2009) Severe Respiratory Disease Concurrent with the Circulation of H1N1 Influenza. N Engl J Med. 361: 674-9.
25. Miller MA, Viboud C, Balinska M, Simonsen L. (Jun 2009) The signature features of influenza pandemics -- implications for policy. N Engl J Med. 360(25): 2595-8.
26. Richard SA, Sugaya N, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Viboud C. (Aug 2008) A comparative study of the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Japan, USA and UK: mortality impact and implications for pandemic planning. Epidemiol Infect. 137(8): 1062-72.
    
27. Barry JM, Viboud C, Simonsen L. (Nov 2008) Cross-Protection between Successive Waves of the 1918–1919 Influenza Pandemic: Epidemiological Evidence from US Army Camps and from Britain. J Infect Dis. 198(10): 1427-34.
    
28. Chowell G, Bettencourt LM, Johnson N, Alonso WJ, Viboud C. (Mar 2008) The 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in England and Wales: spatial patterns in transmissibility and mortality impact. Proc Biol Sci. 275(1634): 501-9.
    
29. Andreasen V, Viboud C, Simonsen L. (Jan 2008) Epidemiologic characterization of the 1918 influenza pandemic summer wave in Copenhagen: implications for pandemic control strategies. J Infect Dis. 197(2): 270-8.
    
30. Gottfredsson M, Halldórsson BV, Jónsson S, Kristjánsson M, Kristjánsson K, Kristinsson KG, Löve A, Blöndal T, Viboud C, Thorvaldsson S, Helgason A, Gulcher JR, Stefánsson K, Jónsdóttir I. (Jan 2008) Lessons from the past: Familial aggregation analysis of fatal pandemic influenza (Spanish flu) in Iceland in 1918. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 105(4): 1303-8.
    
31. Nuño M, Chowell G, Gumel AB. (Jun 2007) Assessing the role of basic control measures, antivirals and vaccine in curtailing pandemic influenza: scenarios for the US, UK and the Netherlands. J R Soc Interface. 4: 505-21.
32. Reichert TA. (Nov 2005) Preparing for the next influenza pandemic: lessons from multinational data. Pediatr Infect Dis J. 24(11 Suppl): S228-31.
33. Viboud C, Grais RF, Lafont BA, Miller MA, Simonsen L. (July 2005) Multinational impact of the 1968 Hong Kong influenza pandemic: evidence for a smoldering pandemic. J Infect Dis. 192(2): 233-48.
    
34. Simonsen L, Olson DR, Viboud C, Heiman E, Miller MA, Reichert TA. (2005) Pandemic influenza and mortality: past evidence and projections for the future. In: Knobler S, Oberholtzer K, eds. Forum on Microbial Threats. Pandemic influenza: Assessing capabilities for prevention and response. Washington, DC: Institute of Medicine, The National Academy of Sciences: 89-114.

Vaccine benefits and influenza control strategies

1. Chowell G, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Miller MA. (Oct 2011) Measuring the benefits of school closure interventions to mitigate influenza. Expert Rev Respir Med. 2011 Oct; 5(5): 597-9.
2. Fouchier RA, Smith DJ. (Mar 2010) Use of antigenic cartography in vaccine seed strain selection. Avian Dis. 2010 Mar; 54(1 Suppl): 220-3.
3. Barr IG, McCauley J, Cox N, Daniels R, Engelhardt OG, Fukuda K, Grohmann G, Hay A, Kelso A, Klimov A, Odagiri T, Smith D, Russell C, Tashiro M, Webby R, Wood J, Ye Z, Zhang W. (Feb 2010) Epidemiological, antigenic and genetic characteristics of seasonal influenza A(H1N1), A(H3N2) and B influenza viruses: Basis for the WHO recommendation on the composition of influenza vaccines for use in the 2009–2010 Northern Hemisphere season. Vaccine. 2010 Feb 3; 28(5): 1156-67.
4. Richard SA, Viboud C, Miller MA. (Feb 2010) Evaluation of Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine recommendations. Vaccine. 28(15): 2693-9.
5. Voordouw AC, Beyer WE, Smith DJ, Sturkenboom MC, Stricker BH. (Dec 2009) Evaluation of serological trials submitted for annual re-licensure of influenza vaccines to regulatory authorities between 1992 and 2002. Vaccine. 2009 Dec 11; 28(2): 392-7.
6. Simonsen L, Viboud C, Taylor RJ, Miller MA, Jackson L. (Oct 2009) Influenza vaccination and mortality benefits: new insights, new opportunities. Vaccine. 27(45): 6300-4.
7. Chowell G, Viboud C, Wang X, Bertozzi S, Miller M. (Aug 2009) Adaptive vaccination strategies to mitigate pandemic influenza: Mexico as a case study. PLoS Currents Influenza. RRN1004.
8. de Mello WA, de Paiva TM, Ishida MA, Benega MA, Dos Santos MC, Viboud C, Miller MA, Alonso WJ. (Apr 2009) The dilemma of influenza vaccine recommendations when applied to the tropics: the Brazilian case examined under alternative scenarios. PLoS ONE. 4(4): e5095.
9. Viboud C, Miller MA. (Oct 2008) Health benefits of universal influenza vaccination strategy. PLoS Med. 5(10): e216.
10. Miller MA, Viboud C, Olson DR, Grais RF, Rabaa MA, Simonsen L. (Aug 2008) Prioritization of influenza pandemic vaccination to minimize years of life lost. J Infect Dis. 198(3): 305-11.
    
11. Chowell G, Miller MA, Viboud C. (Jun 2008) Seasonal influenza in the United States, France, and Australia: transmission and prospects for control. Epidemiol Infect. 136(6): 852-64.
12. Simonsen L, Viboud C, Taylor RJ. (Dec 2007) Effectiveness of influenza vaccination. NEJM. 357(26): 2729-30.
13. Simonsen L, Taylor R, Viboud C, Miller M, Jackson L. (Oct 2007) Mortality benefits of influenza vaccination in elderly people: an ongoing controversy. Lancet Infect Dis. 7(10): 658-66.
14. Dushoff J, Plotkin JB, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Miller M, Loeb M, Earn DJ. (May 2007) Vaccinating to protect a vulnerable subpopulation. PLoS Med 4(5): e174.
15. Le Menach A, Vergu E, Grais RF, Smith DL, Flahault A. (Oct 2006) Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: lessons for transmission to humans. Proc Biol Sci. 273(1600): 2467-75.
    
16. Goodwin K, Viboud C, Simonsen L. (Feb 2006) Antibody response to influenza vaccination in the elderly: A quantitative review. Vaccine. 24(8):1159-69.
    
17. Simonsen L, Viboud C, Taylor R. (Dec 2005) Influenza vaccination in elderly people. Lancet. 366(9503): 2086.
    
18. Simonsen L, Reichert TA, Viboud C, Blackwelder WC, Taylor RJ, Miller MA. (Feb 2005) Impact of influenza vaccination on seasonal mortality in the US elderly population. Archives of Internal Medicine. 165(3): 265-72.
    
19. Simonsen L, Viboud C, Blackwelder WC, Taylor RJ, Miller MA. (Aug 2005) Researchers defend influenza vaccine study. Infect Dis News. (Guest Editorial)
20. Reichert TA. (Apr 2002) The Japanese program of vaccination of schoolchildren against influenza:implications for control of the disease. Semin Pediatr Infect Dis. 13(2): 104-11.
    
21. Reichert TA, Sugaya, N, Fedson DS, Glezen WP, Simonsen L, Tashiro M. (Mar 2001) The Japanese experience with vaccinating school children against influenza. N Engl J Med. 344(12): 889-96.

1. Nelson MI, Lemey P, Tan Y, Vincent A, Lam TTY, Detmer S, Viboud C, Suchard M, Rambaut A, Holmes EC, Gramer M. (Jun 2011) Spatial dynamics of human-origin H1 influenza A virus in North American swine. PLoS Pathog. 9 June 2011. 7(6): e1002077.
2. Ghedin E, Wentworth D, Halpin RA, Lin X, Bera J, DePasse J, Fitch A, Griesemer S, Hine E, Katzel DA, Overton L, Proudfoot K, Sitz J, Szczypinski B, St. George K, Spiro DJ, Holmes EC. (Jun 2010) Unseasonal transmission of H3N2 Influenza A virus during the swine-origin H1N1 pandemic. J Virol. 84(11): 5715-8.
3. Saenz RA, Quinlivan M, Elton D, MacRae S, Blunden AS, Mumford JA, Daly JM, Digard P, Cullinane A, Grenfell BT, McCauley JW, Wood JLN, Gog. JR (Apr 2010) Dynamics of influenza virus infection and pathology. J Virol. 84(8):3974-83.
4. Park AW, Daly JM, Lewis NS, Smith DJ, Wood JL, Grenfell BT. (Oct 2009) Quantifying the impact of immune escape on transmission dynamics of influenza. Science. 326(5953): 726-8.
5. Munayco CV, Gómez J, Laguna-Torres VA, Arrasco J, Kochel TJ, Fiestas V, Garcia J, Perez J, Torres I, Condori F, Nishiura H, Chowell G. (Aug 2009) Epidemiological and transmissibility analysis of influenza A(H1N1)v in a southern hemisphere setting: Peru. Euro Surveill. 14(32): 1-5.
6. Rivas A, Chowell G, Schwager S, Fasina FO, Hoogesteijn A, Smith SD, Bisschop S, Anderson K, Hyman JM. (Aug 2009) Lessons from Nigeria: the role of roads in the geo-temporal progression of avian influenza (H5N1) virus. Epidemiol Infect. 1-7. Epub: 05 Aug 2009.
7. Lipsitch M, Viboud C. (Mar 2009) Influenza seasonality: lifting the fog. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 106(10): 3645-6.
8. Finkelman BS, Viboud C, Koelle K, Ferrari MJ, Bharti N, Grenfell BT. (Dec 2007) Global patterns in  seasonal activity of influenza A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and B from 1997 to 2005: viral coexistence and latitudinal gradients. PLoS ONE. 2(12): e1296.
9. Alonso WJ, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Hirano EW, Daufenbach LZ, Miller MA. (Jun 2007) Seasonality of influenza in Brazil: a traveling wave from the Amazon to the subtropics. Am J Epidemiol. 165(12):1434-42.
10. Viboud C, Tam T, Fleming D, Handel A, Miller M, Simonsen L. (Nov 2006) Transmissibility and mortality impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza, with emphasis on the unusually deadly 1951 epidemic. Vaccine. 24(44-46): 6701-7.
11. Viboud C, Miller MA, Grenfell B, Bjørnstad O, Simonsen L. (Nov 2006) Air travel and the spread of influenza: important caveats. PLos Med. 3(11): e503.
    
12. Viboud C, Bjørnstad O, Smith DL, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Grenfell B. (Apr 2006) Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza. Science. 312(5772): 447-51.
13. Viboud C, Boëlle PY, Cauchemez S, Lavenu A, Valleron AJ, Flahault A, Carrat F. (Sept 2004) Risk factors of influenza transmission in households. Br J Gen Pract. 54(506): 684-9.
    
14. Cauchemez S, Carrat F, Viboud C, Valleron AJ, Boëlle PY. (Nov 2004) A Bayesian MCMC approach to study transmission of influenza: application to household longitudinal data. Stat Med. 23(22): 3469-87.
15. Viboud C, Boëlle P-Y, Pakdaman KP, Carrat F, Valleron A-J, Flahault A. (Jan 2004) Influenza epidemics in the USA, France, and Australia, 1972-1997. Emerg Infect Dis. 10(1): 32-9.
    
16. Viboud C, Boëlle P-Y, Carrat F, Valleron A-J, Flahault A. (Nov 2003) Prediction of the spread of influenza epidemics by the method of analogues. Am J of Epidemiol. 158:10; 996-1006.
    

Influenza disease burden in tropical and temperate climates

1. Chowell, G, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Miller M, Alonso WJ. (Jun 2010) The reproduction number of seasonal influenza epidemics in Brazil, 1996-2006. Proc Biol Sci. 277(1689): 1857-69.
2. Shaman J, Pitzer VE, Viboud C, Grenfell BT, Lipsitch M. (Feb 2010) Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States. Plos Biol. 8(2): e1000316.
3. Newall A, Viboud C, Wood J. (Nov 2009) Influenza-attributable mortality in Australians aged more than 50 years: a comparison of different modelling approaches. Epidemiol Infect. 2009 Nov 27: 1-7. [Epub ahead of print]
4. Gordon A, Videa E, Saborio S, López R, Kuan G, Reingold A, Balmaseda A, Harris E. (Nov 2009) Performance of an influenza rapid test in children in a primary healthcare setting in Nicaragua. PLoS One. 4(11): e7907.
5. Rizzo C, Bella A, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Rota MC, Salmaso S, Ciofi Degli Atti ML. (May 2007) Trends for influenza-related deaths during pandemic and epidemic seasons, Italy, 1969-2001. Emerg Infect Dis. 13(5): 694-9.
6. Rizzo C, Viboud C, Montomoli E, Simonsen L, Miller MA. (Oct 2006) Influenza-related mortality in the Italian elderly: no decline associated with increasing vaccination coverage. Vaccine. 24(42-43): 6468-75.
7. Viboud C, Tam T, Fleming D, Miller M, Simonsen L. (Apr 2006) 1951 influenza epidemic, England and Wales, Canada, and the United States. Emerg Infect Dis. 12(4): 661-8.
8. Viboud C, Alonso WJ, Simonsen L. (Mar 2006) Influenza in tropical regions. Plos Med. 3(4): e89.
9. Dushoff J, Plotkin JB, Viboud C, Earn DJ, Simonsen L. (Jan 2006) Mortality due to influenza in the United States – an annualized regression approach using multiple-cause mortality data. Am J Epidemiol. 163(2):181-7.
10. Simonsen L, Taylor R, Viboud C, Dushoff J, Miller MA. (Jan 2006) US flu mortality estimates are based on solid science. BMJ. 332(7534): 177-8.
11. Dushoff J. (Jul 2005) Assessing influenza-related mortality: Comment on Zucs et al. Emerg Themes Epidemiol. 2:7.
    
12. Dushoff J, Plotkin JB, Levin SA, Earn DJ. Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 101(48): 16915-6.
    
13. Reichert TA, Simonsen L, Sharma A, Pardo SA, Fedson DS, Miller MA. (Sep 2004) Influenza and the winter increase in mortality in the United States, 1959-1999. Am J Epidemiol. 160(5): 492-502.
    
14. Viboud C, Pakdaman K., Boëlle P-Y, Myers M, Wilson ML, Valleron A-J, Flahault A. (Nov 2004) Association of influenza epidemics with global climate variability. Eur J Epidemiol. 19(11): 1055-9.
    
15. Simonsen L, Blackwelder WC, Reichert TA, Miller MA. (May 2003) Estimating deaths due to influenza and respiratory syncytial virus. JAMA. 289(19): 2499-500.

Updated January 2012